Insight Focus
We think global sugar production in 2023/24 will be the second largest on record. As a result, we expect a global sugar surplus of almost 3m tonnes for 2023/24. A near-record 2023/24 CS Brazil sugar crop set to start soon is behind this.
Global Sugar Production
The world will produce 180.7m tonnes of sugar in 2023/24, this is the second largest in record after the 2017/18 crop season. This forecast is 2.2m tonnes lower than our March update.
Part of this downgrade comes from Thailand where we think strong cassava returns will decrease the amount of sugar cane planted by farmers in 2023/24. As such we have reduced our forecast by 1.9m tonnes.
Furthermore, we have lowered our forecast for India by 1.5m tonnes in 2023/24. We expect yields in India to return to a similar level as 2020/21. In recent seasons more sugar has been grown on marginal land which is more vulnerable to poor growing conditions, like lack of rainfall.
Global Sugar Consumption
In 2023/24 we think the world will consume around 178m tonnes of sugar, this will be highest on record, and represents almost 5.1m tonnes more than the Covid-19 affected 2021/22 season.
Since the last update, we have not made any changes to this forecast.
Small Production Surplus
With our global production forecast lowered our estimate for production surplus has been revised downwards too. In the 2023/24 season we forecast that production will outpace consumption by 2.5m tonnes.
This global surplus is driven by the upcoming CS Brazil crop which we expect to be 2nd largest on record.
2023/24 India Production Update
We think that India will produce around 32.5m tonnes of sugar in the upcoming 2023/24 season. This is 0.5 tonnes lower than the previous year.
This is because, in recent years, India has become increasingly committed to ethanol production, and in 2023/24, India aims to increase ethanol production by diverting more sucrose to ethanol in order to fulfil their E20 mandate.
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