Insight Focus
Global sugar production remains stagnant. Global consumption is at an all-time high. This results in a sugar production shortfall in 2023/24.
Global Sugar Production
In 2023/24, the world is set to produce 177.9m tonnes of sugar, the second-largest output on record. This forecast is 0.5m tonnes lower than our previous estimate.
This decrease is primarily due to drier-than-normal weather conditions in India, which is expected to last until late October. We are concerned about the impact of India’s sporadic monsoon on cane growth this year, which could result in poor yields.
To make matters worse, there is also worrying news about Australia’s wet weather, which has slowed the cane crush. Farmers have also reported flowering of the cane crop. This will most likely have a negative impact on yields as flowering often reduces the sugar content of the cane.
Global Sugar Consumption
We believe that the world will consume a record amount of sugar in 2023/24, around 179m tonnes. This is mostly driven by population growth which amounts to roughly 2m tonnes of extra sugar required per season.
It’s worth noting that due to a few minor revisions, this forecast is 0.1m tonnes lower than our previous estimate.
Small Production Deficit
A slight drop in our global production estimate from last month, combined with record-high consumption, leaves the world with a 1.1m tonne sugar production shortfall.
That said, due to Brazil’s record-breaking crop, we anticipate a smaller shortfall in sugar production in 2023/24 than in 2022/23.
Ukraine Production Update
For the upcoming 2023/24 season, Ukraine is set to produce 1.6m tonnes of sugar, up 474k tonnes from the previous season. This positive outlook is due to increased planting and favourable weather conditions.
With an increase in sugar production, Ukraine plans to export more than a third of its sugar output. This means that we will most likely see around 500k tonnes of refined sugar making its way from Ukraine.
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