The topic of Session V was ‘Forecast Export or Import 2025: Domestic Stocks Scenario
(Has India broken cyclicality?)’
The panellists were-
Mr. Prakash Naiknavare, MD of National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd..
Mr. Anup Kumar, Managing Director, Sucden India
Mr. Ravi Gupta, Director, Shree Renuka Sugars.
Mr. Sandeep Kadam, MD, EDF Man India
The session was Moderated by Ms. Manisha Gupta, Group Commodities Editor, CNBC-TV18.
Mr. Prakash Naiknavare, MD of National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd said that cyclicality has plateaued. The 2023 started with a smile, but due to sudden policy interventions by the Government, sugar mills were cautious. There is an uptick in total sugar availability in the current season due to good retreating monsoon. There will be no export of sugar in the current season, as the Government has given more impetus to ethanol blending programme.
Mr. Anup Kumar, Managing Director, Sucden India said that Government policies have been encouraging for both millers and farmers. The farmer is assured of remuneration. He said that if the country produces excess sugar in the current season, it should be exported out.
Mr. Ravi Gupta, Director, Shree Renuka Sugars said that effectively the cyclicality is broken, though there are weather related issues. There is an error in accurately estimating sugar production every year, which is detrimental to the sugar industry.
Brazil is maximising sugar production vis-à-vis ethanol production. In Brazil, the corn ethanol has become a competitor to sugarcane ethanol, as a lot of demand has gone to corn ethanol. India should refrain from producing surplus sugar as it will sell at a lower price. Sugar mills should divert excess sugar towards ethanol production, as sugar exports look distant.
Mr. Sandeep Kadam, MD, EDF Man India said that cyclicality is broken. Though weather will continue to play a role. If there is surplus sugar, ethanol will get second priority after domestic consumption requirement. He said he doesn’t see sugar exports taking place in next 15-20 months.
