The International Sugar Organization (ISO) on Wednesday increased its forecast for an anticipated global sugar deficit in the current 2023-24 season.
In a recently released report on the worldwide sugar market, the ISO’s second revision of 2023-24 balance reveals a global deficit of 0.689 million (mln) tonnes, increased from 0.335 mln tonnes in November. Global production forecast is revised down to 179.749 mln tonnes in 2023-24, from 179.887 mln tonnes previously. The biggest change in ISO’s production increase is in Brazil, but this is partially offset by a reduction in Thailand’s production, which is only slightly smaller. World consumption is now projected at 180.438 mln tonnes in 2023-24. The 2.581 mln tonne increase over last season represents a 1.45% rise, up from 1.02% in 2022/23.
According to the ISO, changes in trade dynamics are key market considerations. The record trade volume of over 67 mln tonnes forecast in 2023-24 is partly driven by expanding re-export operations through port-based refineries, which is projected to rise by 3.296 mln tonnes. These port-based refineries are fulfilling an increasingly important role in the market as the share of total exports held by Brazil increases. The latest figures show Brazil supplying half of all exports and three-quarters of all raw sugar exports.
As per ISO’s report, world ethanol production in 2023 has been estimated at 116.0 billion (bln) litres, up from 108.6 bln litres in 2022. Upward revisions in output for Brazil, and the US are expected to more than offset reductions in other countries. For 2024, preliminary projections point to an output total of 115.4 bln litres, slightly below the revised 2023 level. Meanwhile consumption in 2023 is estimated to have reached 108.1 bln litres, up 3.11 bln litres from 2022. The revision is driven by improvements in offtake in India, Brazil, and the US more than compensating for a small reduction in Colombia, Thailand, and other countries. For 2024, offtake is expected to rise further, with a reduction in consumption in India offset by increases in Brazil, US, EU, and other countries.
