The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center has issued its inaugural monsoon forecast for India this year, providing distinct predictions for the periods of April to June and July to September. According to these forecasts, India is anticipated to experience above-average rainfall during its primary monsoon season from July to September. This adjustment in forecast is attributed to a recent ENSO alert, indicating a transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions.
The APCC introduced an ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert system update on March 15, 2024. The current ENSO status forecasts a La Niña Watch from April to September 2024.
In its outlook for July to September, the APCC Climate Center stated, “There is an increased likelihood of above-normal precipitation for various regions, including eastern Africa, the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia, and the southern South Pacific. Some areas of East Asia and northern Australia are also expected to experience above-normal precipitation.”
Previously, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had indicated the likelihood of abundant rainfall during the monsoon season this year, attributing it to decreased El Niño influence and significant La Niña conditions in the Pacific region expected after May.
What is La Niña?
La Niña is a climate phenomenon characterised by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, near the coast of South America. It is the counterpart to El Niño, which is characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region. La Niña events typically occur irregularly every few years and can last for several months to a few years.
During La Niña, the atmospheric circulation patterns over the Pacific Ocean and surrounding regions are altered. La Niña events often have significant implications for weather and climate patterns worldwide, influencing regional climate variability and sometimes leading to extreme weather events.
