The United States government has decreased its prediction for how much sugar it will import from Mexico in the 2023-24 season (October-September), as stated in a monthly report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) unveiled on Thursday. The new forecast is for only 499,000 short tons (ST), down from the previous estimate of 666,000 ST reported in March.
This reduction is due to Mexico experiencing two years of small sugarcane harvests, which has limited the amount it can provide to the U.S. under a trade agreement between the two countries. The USDA has also lowered its estimate for Mexico’s sugar production in the 2023/24 season to 4.57 million metric tons, down from 4.74 million in March and 5.22 million in the previous season (2022/23).
This adjustment by the USDA comes at a time when the U.S. sugar industry has raised concerns about Mexico exporting more sugar than it should, exceeding its surplus. The USDA has increased its projection for U.S. sugar imports subject to the highest tariff to 855,000 ST from 715,000 ST in March. This means that more sugar entering the country will face higher prices.
Sugar supply levels in the US are stable despite this with a stock-to-use ratio of 13.5%
