The Indian Meteorological Department has announced the Long Range Forecast for 2024 Southwest Monsoon. It expects the rains during June to September over the country as a whole to be above normal, above 104% of the Long Range Average (LRA). The seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is expected to be 106% of LPA with a model of _+5%. The LPA of the season rainfall as a whole for the country is 87 cm from 1971-2020.
The Press Release said that moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, further indicating weakening of the El Nino conditions to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation during the early part of the monsoon season, and La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season.
At present, neutral Ocean Dipole (IOC) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. IMD will issue updated monsoon rain forecast in the last week of May.
