India is likely to receive above-normal monsoon rains this year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), sticking to its April forecast.
“Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%.,” the IMD stated.
The IMD added, “Above Normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2024..”
The IMD also indicated that in June, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except many parts of the southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely. Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely.
The strong El Niño conditions observed over equatorial Pacific in the beginning of this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and currently transitioning towards ENSO neutral conditions. The latest Climate model forecasts indicate ENSOneutral conditions are likely to get established during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
On 15th April, 2024, the IMD had issued the first-stage forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall, consisting of quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for the tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of the seasonal (June-September) rainfall.
MD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June.
