The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in its latest report said that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, which means it is neither El Niño or La Niña phase. However, the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch, but the bureau clarified that a La Niña Watch does not guarantee that a La Niña will develop.
The report said that the Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023. This surface cooling is supported by a significant amount of sub-surface cooling in the central and eastern Pacific.
Climate models suggest that SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue to cool over the coming months. Four of seven models suggest SSTs are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, with the remaining three models showing SSTs cooling to La Niña levels from August. It is important to emphasise that early signs of La Niña are most relevant to the climate of the tropical Pacific, and that the long-range forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature provides better guidance for local climate.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent 4 weeks have seen the IOD index within neutral thresholds, with the latest week just below the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C).
Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Monsoon after entering Kerala has weakened a bit and the progress is expected to be slower. IMD said that conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some parts of Karnataka and some more parts of Tamil Nadu during next 2-3 days.
