The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Wednesday that the production capacity of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the United States could increase by a staggering 1400% in 2024, contingent upon all planned capacity expansions coming online, as per Reuters.
According to the EIA, domestic production of other biofuels is also expected to grow by approximately 50% next year, driven primarily by the anticipated rise in SAF output. The EIA projects that SAF production will leap from its current 2,000 barrels per day (bpd) to nearly 30,000 bpd in 2024.
The EIA defines other biofuels as including renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable propane, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization.
Coupled with that, already huge strides are seen being made in renewable fuel production. On renewable fuel production, Phillips 66’s Rodeo facility in California hit its target of 50,000 bpd in June; which included 10,000 bpd of SAF. A second project by Valero called Diamond Green, in partnership with Darling Ingredients at its Port Arthur, Texas refinery, is expected to start up in the fourth quarter and target production of 15,000 bpd of SAF by the end of 2024.
The EIA attributes this surge in SAF investments to the Renewable Fuel Standard by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, federal tax credits, and incentives at the state level. The White House set an ambitious goal for 2050: that SAF would meet 100% of U.S. aviation fuel demand.
Currently, the U.S. consumes about 1.6 million bpd of petroleum jet fuel, a figure projected to exceed 2.0 million bpd by 2050 according to the EIA’s 2023 Annual Energy Outlook.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported in early June that their projection for tripling SAF production to 1.9 billion litres (1.5 million tonnes) in 2024 remains on track, which would account for 0.53% of aviation’s fuel needs next year.
The IATA pointed to growth in renewable fuel production across sectors where SAF will play a significant role. They indicated that the key to producing more SAF lies in increasing overall renewable fuel output. In this regard, some 140 projects in the production of renewable fuels for making SAF have been announced to come on stream by 2030. Should this materialize as projected, total capacity production will reach 51 million tons by 2030, covering almost all regions.
The IATA estimated 69 million tonnes of renewable fuel capacity to be available in 2028; considering more stringent success criteria and a slower pace in project progression, it is now revised to stand at 51 million tonnes by 2030. Nonetheless, with the right incentives in place, the potential does exist for international aviation to reach a 5% reduction of carbon emissions by 2030 through increased SAF production, provided there are policies in place to support this shift.
The story on the potential increase of 1400% in U.S. SAF production capacity in 2024 was originally reported by Farmdoc.
