The Southwest Monsoon, which has been one of the wettest in recent years with rainfall 8% above the long-term average, might start to withdraw from parts of northwest India around September 22, reported The Hindustan Times.
If this occurs, it would be the earliest the monsoon has begun withdrawing from northwest India in the past eight years. Last year, the withdrawal started around September 25, while in 2022, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on September 30 that the monsoon had retreated from Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi, parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Rajasthan. However, rainfall continued, and experts suggested that the IMD had declared the withdrawal prematurely.
M Mohapatra, the IMD Director General, explained, “Withdrawal begins in Rajasthan. This does not mean the monsoon will leave all parts of northwest India simultaneously. Rainfall can still be expected, as a low-pressure area is predicted to move across central India into Gujarat and Rajasthan next week.”
The IMD’s extended forecast for the week of September 19-25 indicates that no major weather systems are expected to impact the country. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy showers, is anticipated over south peninsular India, particularly in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The rest of the country is not expected to experience significant rainfall. Overall, rainfall is expected to be normal to above normal in south peninsular India and below normal elsewhere. Conditions may become favorable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from parts of northwest India in the latter half of the week.
So far in September, rainfall has been 22.7% above average, with a 32.3% excess in northwest India; 47.4% below average in east and northeast India; 45.1% above average in central India; and 64.1% above average in peninsular India.
Since the monsoon season began on June 1, there has been an 8% overall excess in rainfall. Central India has seen a 19% excess, northwest India a 5% excess, east and northeast India a 16% deficiency, and peninsular India a 24% excess. The monsoon typically starts withdrawing on September 17 and completes its retreat by October 15.
A delayed withdrawal, especially if accompanied by active rainfall, could pose a risk to crops as they approach harvest in October.
