The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) New Delhi (Post) highlights the forecast for the marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 in a report titled “Sugar Semi-Annual” released for India.
FAS New Delhi (Post) has raised MY 2024/2025 centrifugal sugar production by 4 percent to 35.5 million metric tons (MMT) (raw value basis), equivalent to 33.2 MMT of crystal sugar. It includes 500,00 MT of khandsari. The higher production forecast is supported by expectations of a good crop due to sufficient rainfall during the 2024 southwest monsoon and a better sugar recovery rate than expected. The monsoon rainfall is likely to replenish the soil moisture and increase the availability of ground water for irrigation in Maharashtra and Karnataka, the major sugarcane producing states. Uttar Pradesh, the largest producer of sugarcane also received sufficient rainfall during the current year’s southwest monsoon season. Post’s MY 2023/2024 estimate for centrifugal sugar production remains unchanged at 34 MMT (raw value basis), equivalent to 32 MMT of crystal sugar.
In the earlier Sugar Annual report, the USDA forecasted India’s centrifugal sugar production for the MY 2024-2025 (October-September) to reach 34.5 million metric tons (MMT), equivalent to 33 MMT of crystal white sugar.
As per the report, Post marginally reduced India’s sugar planted area for the MY 2024/2025 by 1 percent at 5.4 million hectares (MHa). This reduction is based on farmers shift to competing crops to include areca (betel) nut, cotton, paddy (rice), and pulses in Northern Karnataka and some parts of Maharashtra. The farmers made the shift based on expectations of drought conditions that were experienced in previous years southwest monsoon season. Lowering ground level water is an ongoing concern for sugarcane growers. However, Post ascertains that sugarcane production will increase slightly by 1 percent to 418 MMT, compared to MY 2023/2024. The substantial rainfall received in 2024 is likely to increase the sugar recovery rate of the standing crops and mitigate the effect of decreased cane area. Field sources report there are no incidences of pest infestation or crop loss due to water logging yet.
Post’s forecast for MY 2024/2025 and the estimate for the current year’s consumption remains unchanged at 32 MMT and 31 MMT, equivalent to 29 MMT of crystal white sugar. The growing economy, rising income levels, and changing food habits are expected to continue to drive overall food consumption, including sugar. Demand from bulk users and institutions, especially during major celebrations like Diwali, will likely remain strong. Currently, sugar prices are stable, while prices for non-alcoholic beverages, prepared meals, and the consumer food price index are elevated. Khandsari sugar is mainly consumed by local sweet shops, while gur is preferred in rural households for its affordability and energy content. The Indian government maintains the ban on the export of raw sugar.
