Imported refined sugar in the country plunged to 66,325 metric tonnes (MT) in 2024 from 730,430 MT a year ago. The reason behind such a sharp fall is that raw sugar stocks carried over from 2023 are ample and the country’s government protection is given to local producers, reported the Manila Times.
The outlook for 2025 is no raw sugar import, as the Philippine government, in its policy, aims to bring sugar producers under its protection umbrella. Exports are anticipated at 25,000 MT consistent with the US tariff quota. According to USDA, no more exports should be expected since all sugar production will be allocated for the same local consumption, under Sugar Order No. 1.
There is no raw sugar shortage expected at the commencement of the 2024 marketing year primarily because of stable carryover inventories from 2023 and a high inventory to start the milling season. On normal production levels in November, the supply is restocked enough to cover the monthly requirement.
The USDA projects local sugar production to reach 1.85 million MT for the 2025 marketing year, surpassing the Sugar Regulatory Administration’s (SRA) forecast of 1.78 million MT. The agency credits this higher estimate to expanded plantation areas and improved weather conditions following the previous El Niño. The SRA’s earlier predictions of a 10-15% production decrease due to El Niño did not materialize, leading to better sugar recovery from harvested cane.
