New Delhi: India’s wheat production for the rabi season of 2024-25 is projected to reach a record 115.43 million tonnes, driven by strong acreage and favorable weather conditions, according to the second advance estimates released on Monday, reports Business Standard.
The higher-than-expected output could help bring down wheat prices, which have surged from an inflation rate of 6.02% in April 2024 to 8.80% in January 2025. Currently, wheat prices in Delhi’s mandis are hovering around ₹3,000 per quintal, about 24% higher than the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹2,425 per quintal.
A strong wheat harvest would enable the government to replenish its stocks, which stood at 16.1 million tonnes as of February 1, surpassing the January 1 buffer requirement of 13.8 million tonnes. This could potentially allow the resumption of wheat exports if domestic prices stabilize.
The government aims to maintain a wheat buffer of approximately 7.5 million tonnes by April 1 each year. In FY25 and FY24, the opening stock of wheat was just above this threshold at 7.5 million tonnes and 8.4 million tonnes, respectively. By the beginning of FY26, it is expected to rise to around 10-11 million tonnes.
In recent years, government wheat procurement has fallen short of targets as farmers prefer selling to private traders for better prices. This has weakened the government’s ability to regulate prices through open-market sales. In FY25, around 3 million tonnes of wheat were injected into the market, compared to 10 million tonnes in FY24, contributing to sustained high prices.
A strong harvest this season could help the government meet its FY26 procurement target of approximately 32 million tonnes. To encourage farmers to sell their produce to government agencies, the Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan governments have announced procurement bonuses of ₹125 and ₹150 per quintal, effectively raising the MSP to around ₹2,600 per quintal. Madhya Pradesh aims to procure around 8 million tonnes this season, while Rajasthan has set a lower target.
Among other major rabi crops, mustard production is estimated at 12.87 million tonnes, slightly lower than last year’s 13.26 million tonnes. The decline is attributed to farmers shifting to wheat and chana cultivation after failing to secure adequate prices for oilseeds during the previous kharif season.
Chana production is expected to reach 11.53 million tonnes, up from 11.04 million tonnes last year. As the country’s largest pulse crop, increased chana production could have a significant impact on market prices.
Overall foodgrain production, including both kharif and rabi crops, is estimated at 331 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s 332.3 million tonnes.
“The production of rabi crops is based on average yields, and these figures may be revised in future estimates,” an official statement noted.
