India is expected to receive above-normal cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday, also confirming that El Nino conditions are not expected throughout the period.
According to the IMD, most regions across the country—excluding parts of the northeast—are likely to witness normal to above-normal rainfall levels this year.
The announcement came during a press conference held by the IMD, where officials shared the seasonal rainfall outlook for the June to September monsoon period. A normal monsoon is defined as rainfall ranging from 96% to 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA), while rainfall exceeding 105% is considered above normal.
“The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal(>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra at the briefing in New Delhi.
Mohapatra also noted that their forecasting models suggest neutral ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions—where neither El Nino nor La Nina is dominant—are likely to persist during the 2025 monsoon season.
The forecast of normal rainfall this monsoon is a major relief for the country.
IMD would issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2025.
