As per Skymet’s latest report on El Nino dated April 27, 2024, the El Nino condition is likely to convert to ENSO Neutral conditions by May. ENSO neutral means that there is no El Nino or La Nina.
The report mentioned the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau has set a standard index of +/- 0.8°C above/ below the normal sea surface temperature (SST) for El Nino and La Nina conditions, respectively. As per that, the El Nino has ended and the ENSO has turned neutral.
However, the threshold value is +/- 0.5°C as per the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC-NOAA).
Skymet said that the ocean and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific indicate the continuation of an El Nino event, albeit with a declining intensity. The strengthening and weakening of El Nino in October 2023 and March 2024, respectively has been captured nicely in the ocean surface temperature across the equatorial Pacific. The SST anomaly of Al Nino as on 22ndApril 2024 was +0.7°C, which indicates steady cooling in the tropical Pacific.
