OCCASIONAL GYAN
Apologies for the long absence. Except for the occasional Tweet, I have been silent on Social Media, but promise to be more regular from here on in.
After all the interaction that took place over the last week in Dubai and Mumbai, it looks very clear that the Indian Crop will surpass 34 mil MT (net of sucrose diverted to Ethanol). This will be the largest crop ever and if one includes the 3.5 mln MT (sugar equivalent diverted to Ethanol), at 37.5 million MT it is the biggest crop by a mile.
Despite the large crop the Domestic Prices have held up and in fact have recovered from the lows in the past 3-4 weeks, and this is all thanks to a very strong Export Campaign on the back of a smaller Brazilian and Thai crop and a strong push for the Ethanol Blending Programme.
The world market has remained buoyant despite India projecting an export of 8.5+ mln MT mainly thanks to Crude hitting all time highs on the back of the geopolitical situation prevailing at the moment. The worry now is whether Brazil will bring in a subsidy on Diesel & Petrol to protect the consumers. Should this happen Ethanol Prices in Brazil could be capped thus pushing the mix back in favor of sugar in the largest exporter of sugar. The next few weeks will be crucial as the Millers in Brazil decide on the Sugar/Ethanol Mix.
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Indian Sugar Industry Guru – Mr. Yatin Wadhwana is a strategic consultant and trader with over 35 years of experience. He is Director at Gradient Commercial Pvt. Ltd. which undertakes strategic trades, consultancy and advisory roles. Apart from sugar, he has also been involved in Supply Chain Management, Logistics and the trade of other agri-commodities including wheat, rice and soybean.
To get in touch with Mr.Yatin Wadhwana write on yatinwadhwana@gradient.biz
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