New Delhi: The country’s total sugar production is seeing a huge decline due to low recovery in Uttar Pradesh and reduced production in Maharashtra. According to experts, this decline will not have any effect on supply or prices, as the country will still have about 5.4 million tonnes of sugar by the end of the season.
India’s sugar production for the 2024-25 season, ending in September, is now expected to reach 26.4 million tonnes, a reduction from the earlier estimate of 27.2 million tonnes, according to the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), reports Business Standard.
The downward revision is attributed to weaker sugar recovery rates in Uttar Pradesh and lower output in Maharashtra. However, ISMA assured that this decline will not disrupt supply or impact prices, as the country will still have around 5.4 million tonnes of sugar stock at the season’s end.
The association reported that closing sugar stocks for the season will exceed the required two months’ supply of 4.5 million tonnes. Additionally, a higher-than-expected opening stock of 8 million tonnes has further strengthened availability.
ISMA initially estimated net sugar production at 27.2 million tonnes, factoring in 3.7 million tonnes diverted to ethanol. However, the revised forecast now pegs net output at 26.4 million tonnes, with ethanol diversion adjusted to 3.5 million tonnes.
Speaking to Business Standard, Deepak Ballani (Director General, ISMA) said, the opening stock position for the next season will be very comfortable. Furthermore, the 2025-26 sugarcane crop is anticipated to be strong, supported by a favorable monsoon and sufficient water availability in reservoirs. Maharashtra and Karnataka have also reported improved planting for the next season.
Given these conditions, the 2025-26 sugarcane crushing season is expected to start on time in October 2025, with an estimated closing stock of 5.4 million tonnes.
“In addition, varietal replacement in Uttar Pradesh and other northern states has shown significant improvement, which is expected to enhance yields and recovery in the upcoming season,” Ballani added.
Total sugar consumption in the 2024-25 season is projected to be around 28 million tonnes, slightly lower than last year’s 29 million tonnes. The drop is attributed to the absence of increased demand during election-related activities, which had boosted sales in the previous year. Meanwhile, retail sugar prices are expected to remain stable at Rs 43-44 per kg, similar to last year’s levels.
“A key highlight of this season is that nearly 99.9% of last year’s sugarcane dues have been cleared, and around 80% of this season’s payments have already been settled,” Ballani said. He noted that the government’s decision to allow 1 million tonnes of sugar exports provided an additional Rs 21,000 crore to farmers between January and March.
Ballani also stated that once the full 1 million tonnes of permitted sugar exports are completed, the sugar industry is expected to generate about $0.5 billion in revenue. So far, approximately 300,000 tonnes of the allocated export quota have been shipped.
Important News:
Season 2024-25: ISMA revises net sugar production estimates to 264 lakh tonnes
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