In its latest report, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) informed that increased fuel ethanol exports to Canada, Colombia, India, and the United Kingdom account for more than 60% of the growth from 2023 to 2024. The largest increase in fuel ethanol exports has been to India. India is the third most popular destination for U.S. fuel ethanol exports.
The report says that U.S. fuel ethanol exporters are on track to export a record amount of the fuel in 2024. The increase in exports this year has largely been driven by demand in countries with biofuel blending mandates and cheaper-than-usual U.S. fuel ethanol prices.
In the first eight months of 2024, U.S. fuel ethanol exports averaged 121,000 barrels per day (b/d)—the most fuel ethanol exports in the first eight months of any year.
Exports have been consistently high in 2024, exceeding 100,000 b/d in each of the first eight months of this year. In comparison, U.S. fuel ethanol exports exceeded 100,000 b/d in fewer than one-quarter of the months between 2019 and 2023.
In each of the past five years (2019–23), U.S. fuel ethanol exports averaged between 80,000 b/d and 100,000 b/d. Annual fuel ethanol exports have only ever exceeded 100,000 b/d in 2018, when they averaged 112,000 b/d for the year because of high exports to Brazil. Since 2018, U.S. fuel ethanol exports to Brazil have decreased significantly because of Brazil’s tariffs on ethanol imports and its increasing domestic production.
According to the report, spiked fuel ethanol exports to Canada, Colombia, India, and the United Kingdom holds for more than 60% of the growth from 2023 to 2024. Fuel ethanol exports have also increased by small amounts to several other countries. In the first eight months of 2024, exports are on track to exceed 2023 volumes to 30 countries and have already exceeded full-year 2023 volumes to 21 countries.
“The largest increase in fuel ethanol exports has been to India, which has ambitious fuel ethanol blend targets under its Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) programme. India is the third most popular destination for U.S. fuel ethanol exports. After decreasing in 2022 and 2023 due to increasing supply chain costs and elevated U.S. fuel ethanol prices, U.S. fuel ethanol exports to India have rebounded to record volumes in 2024, slightly exceeding the highs from 2017 to 2020,” the report further stated.
Although India’s EBP program prohibits the use of imported ethanol to meet blend targets, India uses imported ethanol for industrial purposes, freeing up domestic product for its transportation blend targets. With reduced production of sugarcane and rice recently, India has relied more on imports of U.S. fuel ethanol to meet industrial sector demand and free up domestic ethanol production for EBP targets.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) have allocated around 837 crore litres of ethanol against 970 crore litres of offers submitted by manufacturers across the country for Ethanol Supply Year 2024-25 – Cycle 1. OMCs had invited tenders for the supply of 916 crore litres of ethanol for ESY 2024-25.
The United Kingdom has seen the second-largest increase in fuel ethanol exports from the United States, which became the second most popular destination for U.S. fuel ethanol exports beginning in 2023. This growth follows the UK’s adoption of the E10 standard in September 2021, which has driven higher fuel ethanol consumption. Additionally, fuel ethanol plays a key role in helping the UK meet its growing renewable fuel targets under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation program.
The United States has also been increasing fuel ethanol exports to Canada, which remains the top destination for U.S. ethanol. As regional blending mandates and programs expand, Canada is expected to rely even more on U.S. fuel ethanol exports.
Colombia continues to be the fourth-largest destination for U.S. fuel ethanol exports. The recent growth in exports to Colombia is mainly due to the reintroduction of an E10 mandate and a reduction in domestic ethanol production. Exports to Brazil, the Philippines, and Singapore have also seen significant increases, although these countries remain smaller destinations for U.S. ethanol.
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