New Delhi: India, a burgeoning player in the global energy arena, finds itself at a critical juncture in the intricate tapestry of the world’s oil dynamics.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Oil Market Report (OMR) stands as a beacon of insight into this labyrinthine landscape, offering authoritative data and timely analysis.
As it traverses through the complexities of global oil production, consumption, and trade, the impact on a nation like India becomes increasingly pronounced.
The year 2023 unfolds with the world oil demand projected to ascend by 2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), reaching a staggering 101.7 mb/d.
This, however, veils a more nuanced narrative–the lurking impact of a weakened macroeconomic climate.
A substantial 400 kb/d decline in global demand growth for the fourth quarter of 2023, with Europe contributing over half of this contraction, signals a delicate interplay of economic forces.
The momentum seems poised to carry into 2024, with projected global gains halving to 1.1 mb/d, driven by GDP growth lagging below the trend in major economies and the growing electric vehicle fleet.
Surprisingly, the United States continues its oil supply ascent, surpassing the 20 mb/d mark.
This, coupled with record production from Brazil and Guyana, along with surges in Iranian flows, propels world output to 101.9 mb/d in 2023–a significant 1.8 mb/d increase.
Non- OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) nations spearhead global gains in 2024, with a projected 1.2 mb/d expansion after OPEC+ deepens its voluntary oil cuts.
In November, Russian crude export prices experienced a sharp decline, falling below the USD 60/bbl price cap.
This, coupled with a 200 kb/d decrease in oil shipments, led to a 17 per cent month-on-month reduction in November’s export revenues for crude and products, totalling USD 15.2 billion–the lowest since July 2023.
Notably, revenues fell more for crude than products, signalling a nuanced shift in market dynamics.
Refinery margins experienced a marginal rebound in Europe and Singapore in November, while the US Gulf Coast lagged for the third consecutive month.
Weaker diesel and gasoline cracks were the primary drivers of the US hub’s decline.
Expectations for crude runs in the fourth quarter of 2023 indicate material weakness due to extended and deeper refinery turnarounds.
Global observed oil inventories mirrored this trend, showing a decline of 19.6 million barrels in October.
While crude oil inventories remained largely unchanged, oil product stocks fell for the first time in four months.
As oil market sentiment turned bearish in November and early December, with non-OPEC+ supply strength aligning with slowing global oil demand growth, prices plummeted.
By early December, Brent futures were trading around USD 74/bbl, and WTI was close to USD 69/bbl–both marking their lowest levels in six months.
The record-breaking supply from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana, coupled with higher Iranian oil production and diminishing demand, prompted some OPEC+ members to announce more extensive cuts through the first quarter of 2024.
Evidence of a slowdown in oil demand is unmistakable. The pace of expansion is set to ease from 2.8 mb/d year-on-year in 3Q23 to 1.9 mb/d in 4Q23.
A deteriorating macroeconomic outlook led to a downward revision in the global oil consumption growth forecast for the final quarter of the year.
Europe, Russia, and the Middle East bear the brunt of this adjustment. The impact of higher interest rates is reverberating through the real economy, and a shift in petrochemical activity toward China is undermining growth elsewhere.
China plays a pivotal role, accounting for 78 per cent of this year’s increase in oil demand. However, oil consumption growth is expected to ease significantly in 2024, dropping to 1.1 mb/d as demand baselines normalize with fading Covid-related distortions.
The transformation of global oil supply from the Middle East to the United States and the Atlantic Basin, coupled with China’s dominant impact on oil demand through its booming petrochemical sector, reshapes global oil trade.
East of Suez markets have already absorbed the majority of Russian flows and rising Iranian exports, but now must adjust to increasing volumes of Atlantic Basin crude and natural gas liquids.
The challenge for key producers to defend their market share and maintain elevated oil prices intensifies against the backdrop of rising output and slowing demand growth.
Navigating this intricate dance of global oil dynamics, each of the three OECD regions emerges as highly dependent on crude oil and petroleum product imports.
The IEA meticulously tracks these trade flows, capturing details from each OECD country and key non-OECD players.
Worldscale, the standard system for assessing freight rates, intricately weaves the physical movement of oil across the globe.
In this global saga, India, with its soaring energy demands and intricate place in the oil trade, takes center stage.
The average price of the Indian basket of crude oil, a crucial metric, reached USD 97.67 per barrel in the financial year 2023–a substantial increase from the previous year’s average of USD 78.19.
This price reflects the intricate balance of global oil dynamics impacting India’s energy landscape.
Recent trends in the Indian oil industry present a nuanced picture. Despite a steady increase in Indian crude oil refinery capacity in recent years, annual domestic crude oil production consistently declined.
Consequently, the volume of crude oil imports surged, underscoring India’s dependence on external sources.
Looking to the future, India, as the third-largest primary energy consumer globally, grapples with diverse sources to meet its energy demands.
Renewable energy emerges as a linchpin in India’s energy transition, with a substantial increase in primary energy consumption anticipated in the coming decades.
The Indian petroleum industry, which started with a slow pace from Digboi in Assam, has witnessed a transformative journey.
Economic liberalization and privatization in July 1991 catapulted the industry into a new era, marked by significant refinery capacity additions, particularly through private sector initiatives.
In 2020, India stood as the second-largest refiner in Asia, with a production volume of petroleum products exceeding 195 million metric tons.
Foreign investments have played a pivotal role in the industry’s rapid growth. Petroleum products, including petroleum gas, propane, distilled crude oil, and kerosene, occupy a prominent place in Indian exports, accounting for 14 per cent in 2020.
The Oil and Natural Gas Commission (ONGC), the largest crude oil and natural gas company in India, significantly contributes to the country’s domestic production.
Privatization became an inevitable part of the Indian petroleum sector’s evolution. The scale of investments required for further development surpassed the capabilities of even the largest state-owned firms.
The momentum toward privatization gained traction, with Bharat Petroleum being the next company to feel its impact.
The Indian government, in March 2020, opened bids for its 53 per cent stake in BPCL, marking a significant step in the ongoing transformation of the sector.
The average price of the Indian basket of crude oil reflects the industry’s complexities, reaching USD 97.67 per barrel in the financial year 2023.
Trends in Indian oil industry highlight a steady increase in refinery capacity, a consistent decline in annual domestic crude oil production, and a surge in crude oil imports.
Looking ahead, India positions itself for significant refinery capacity expansion, with plans such as the one for Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited in Nagapattinam set to increase by nine million metric tons per annum by the financial year 2026.
As India strides toward energy self-sufficiency, the onshore production volume of crude oil in the country is estimated to be around 11.15 million metric tons in the fiscal year 2023.
This figure underscores the pivotal role of indigenous oil production in supporting India’s energy needs.
India’s trajectory toward greater energy security is intertwined with its quest for cleaner alternatives. The government’s emphasis on renewable energy aligns with the global shift towards sustainable practices.
With ambitious targets for renewable energy capacity, India seeks to diversify its energy mix, mitigating environmental impact and reducing dependency on conventional fossil fuels.
The intricate dance of global oil dynamics impacts India not only as a consumer but also as a participant in the broader energy landscape.
As the nation grapples with economic, geopolitical, and environmental considerations, the story of India’s oil industry continues to evolve, reflecting the complex interplay of global forces and domestic aspirations.
The IEA’s Oil Market Report serves as a compass, guiding us through the intricate terrain of the world’s oil dynamics.
Against the backdrop of a transforming global oil landscape, India’s role becomes increasingly pivotal–a nation navigating the delicate balance between energy demands, economic growth, and environmental stewardship.
As India charts its course, the unfolding chapters in its oil industry narrative contribute to the larger story of a world in transition, seeking sustainable energy solutions for a dynamic future.
(With inputs from ANI)
