For the 2024-25 season, experts anticipate India’s gross sugar production will be 34.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) and 4 MMT will go for ethanol production.
Speaking on the production forecast, industry expert and MD of Meir Commodities, Rahil Shaikh, said, “We expect India’s sucrose production for the 2024-25 season to be 34.5 MMT, and sugar diversion of 4 MMT for ethanol production.”
He emphasized that farmers have been paid well and on time and should probably look to expand their area and take good care of their crops. Speaking on the outlook for the Indian sugarcane crop (2025 and beyond), he said, “Our view is that with good rainfall and a very high FRP, we should see the area expanding to 6.0 million hectares. Maharashtra and Karnataka should have a great crop for the 2025-26 season, probably a record, and we should continue to see India achieve its objective of 20 per cent blending and some export possibility.”
“Without sugarcane contribution, achieving the ethanol blending target of 20 percent will be tough. We feel India should be able to meet its domestic market and ethanol blending needs and will have some surplus to export from the 2025-26 season and beyond,” he further added.
The Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare has recently released the progress of area coverage under kharif crops as of July 8, 2024. Data showed that sugarcane sowing reached 56.88 lakh hectares this year, compared to 55.45 lakh hectares in 2023.
The government is also optimistic that India is on track to achieve 20 percent ethanol blending by 2025. According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) Monthly Ready Reckoner report, ethanol blending with petrol was 15.4% during May 2024, and cumulative ethanol blending during November 2023-May 2024 was 12.6%.
The views and data presented in this article are solely those of the expert.
