New Delhi: India received 11 per cent less rainfall in June due to a delay in monsoon momentum for the Northwest and Central regions of the country, highlighted a report by the Bank of Baroda.
The report stated, “There was an early onset of monsoon in Kerala; however, there has been a delay in momentum for the Northwest and Central regions.” It also noted that the long-period average of rainfall in June was recorded at 11 per cent below normal.
The report further added that El Nino conditions, which significantly impact monsoon patterns, are expected to transition to an ENSO-neutral state during the critical phases of the monsoon. This development will be closely monitored to understand its impact on weather patterns and agricultural outcomes.
A notable concern raised in the report is the water storage levels in major reservoirs across the country. Current storage is reported at 22 per cent, which is not only lower than last year’s 28 per cent but also falls below the decadal average. This deficit in water reserves could have far-reaching consequences for agriculture, drinking water supply, and hydroelectric power generation.
Despite these challenges, there has been some positive news on the agricultural front. The sown area for kharif crops has shown improvement over the previous year, indicating a potentially better harvest season ahead. However, overall rural demand has not seen a commensurate rise.
The report noted a slower pace of growth in sales of tractors and two-wheelers, often considered indicators of rural economic health. Additionally, there has been a lower demand for work under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), suggesting a mixed picture for rural employment and income levels.
The report also highlighted that the prices of agricultural commodities have risen due to the persistent heatwave. Moreover, the ongoing monsoon issues have affected the inflation outlook.
This month is crucial, as the future trajectory of the mandis and overall agriculture will heavily depend on the monsoon’s progress. The monsoon’s performance this month will be a critical factor for agricultural production.
