The Committee of ISMA, having sugar producers from across the country, in its meeting held on 8thApril, 2022 noted that the sugar production for the country upto 31st March, 2022 was around 310 lac tons. Maharashtra and Karnataka have already produced around 119 and 58 lac tons respectively till end of March, 2022, and 167 mills were still operating in Maharashtra while 21 mills were operating in Karnataka then.
The Committee discussed the sugar recovery, cane yield, remaining harvestable area / sugarcane and expected dates of closure of factories in different States, and agreed that the sugarcane availability in Maharashtra and Karnataka is higher than what was expected earlier.
Accordingly, ISMA has revised its sugar production estimate for 2021-22 SS (after diversion into ethanol) for Maharashtra as 134 lac tons, against 126 lac tons estimated a month back. Similarly, Karnataka is now expected to produce 62 lac tons (after diversion into ethanol), as against 55 lac tons estimated earlier. However, minor changes are expected in other States including U.P., and they are expected to produce 154 lac tons of sugar (after diversion into ethanol), as against 152 lakh tons estimated earlier.
All India sugar production in 2021-22 SS is therefore expected at 350 lac tons, after considering diversion of 34 lac tons of sugar equivalent into ethanol.
The higher sugar production is due to significantly higher yields per hectare as also higher sugar recovery. The area under sugarcane has not seen any significant increase in the last few years. The higher yields and recoveries are due to better seed varieties and timely application of fertlisers and water, including good rainfall last year.
On the export front, it is reported that around 74 lac tons of export contracts have already been entered into so far. Out of that, over 57 lac tons is reported to have been physically exported till end of March, 2022. Another about 7-8 lakh tons is in pipeline to be exported in April 2022. Further, news from international trade houses indicate that global market is expecting over 85 lac tons of sugar exports from India. This was also discussed in the meeting of ISMA and members agreed that sugar exports will be higher than previously expected, and India will export over 90 lac tons of sugar in the current season.
Considering an opening stock of about 82 lac tons as on 1st October 2021, domestic consumption of 272 lac tons, sugar exports of over 90 lac tons and the estimated sugar production of 350 lac tons, the closing stock as on 30th September, 2022 is expected to be at around 68 lac tons.
