The Indian Sugar Mills & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) announced a promising outlook for the 2024-25 sugar season (SS), with total sugarcane acreage in India estimated at around 56.1 lakh hectares based on satellite images obtained in late June 2024.
According to the press release, gross sugar production (before diversion) for 2024-25 SS is estimated at around 333 lakh tonnes.
The table below highlights the current year’s sugar production and the encouraging estimates for the 2024-25 SS:
Key highlights:-
Uttar Pradesh: The overall condition of standing cane remains robust. Additionally, the diversion of cane towards jaggery and khandsari units is expected to be lower than last year, aligning with normal trends, thus contributing positively to sugar production.
Maharashtra and Karnataka: Both states have experienced a reduction in cane area by around 13% and 8%, respectively, primarily due to last year’s deficient rainfall in major cane-growing districts. However, the current year’s rainfall has been abundant, approximately 30% above normal, with a positive forecast for the remainder of the monsoon. This improved water availability is anticipated to significantly enhance cane productivity and sugar recovery, effectively mitigating the impact of the reduced cane area. As a result, ISMA expects only a minimal decline of 3-5% in gross sugar production in these states.
Other States: Minor adjustments in cane area and production are expected, with overall stability anticipated.
Overall, the projections for the 2024-25 SS are significantly more optimistic than those forecasted a few months ago. ISMA is confident that the upcoming sugar season will be productive and successful.
In light of these encouraging developments, ISMA released a preliminary estimate of gross sugar production for the 2024-25 SS, excluding the diversion of sugar towards ethanol production.
Projected sugar balance for 2024-25 SS
According to the ISMA, the excess stock of sugar will be sufficient to support both the unhindered Ethanol Blending Program in 2024-25 season and also exports in current season leading to a balanced sugar market. The estimate is made assuming normal rainfall and other optimum conditions during the remaining period.
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