Skymet Weather has projected a normal monsoon for 2025. According to the private weather forecaster’s latest release, Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’ to the tune of 103% ( with an error margin of +/- 5% ) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the four month long period of June to September. The spread of Normal being 96-104% of LPA. In its earlier estimates, Skymet has been promoting normal Monsoon and now retains the same.
The monsoon will span the four critical months from June to September (JJAS).
Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet in a release said, “La Nina this season was weak and brief, too. The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now. The occurrence of El Nino which normally corrupts the Monsoon is ruled out. ENSO-neutral is likely to be the most dominant category during the Indian Summer Monsoon. The remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together, will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome. Preliminary Forecast of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will work in tandem with ENSO for better Monsoon prospects. Historically, ENSO-neutral coupled with positive IOD tended to produce a worthy Monsoon. The second half of the season is expected to be better than the primal Phase”.
According to the release, beside ENSO, there are other factors influencing Monsoon. IOD is neutral now and has the propensity to effectively turn positive before the start of Monsoon. ENSO and IOD will be synchronous and are likely to steer Monsoon in the safe margins. The Monsoon may have a quiet start on account of quick transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral and gain enough pace half way through the season.
“In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects sufficiently good rains over Western and South India. Core Monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. Excess rainfall is likely all along the Western Ghats, more so, over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Goa. Northeast region and hilly states of North India are likely to observe less than normal rainfall, during the season,” the release further added.
