The Indian government is planning a cap on sugar exports till at least the first half of 2024. The move aims to ensure an adequate supply of sugar for domestic consumption, given the potential impact of El Nino on agricultural output.
As per reports, the central government is currently adopting a cautious approach, as it requires few more months to gain a clearer understanding of the production scenario. Consequently, any decisions regarding sugar exports will not be rushed.
Amid discussion on sugar export permission in the next season, at present, India’s opening sugar stocks are projected to be near 60 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) in the new season 2023-24.
According to Agrimandi.Live, the current sugar season began with an opening stock of 61 lakh LMT. However, it predicts a decrease in sugar production for the 2022-23 season, with an estimated total of 327 LMT, which is 32 LMT lower than the previous season.
Around 43 LMT of sugar will go for ethanol production. It is 7 LMT higher compared to the previous season, indicating a shift towards increased ethanol production. This move aligns with government efforts to promote cleaner energy and boost biofuel production in a bid to reduce crude oil imports.
With a projected sugar consumption of 275 LMT during the ongoing season and taking into account the expected export of 61 LMT of sugar, Agrimandi.Live anticipates that the opening stock for the upcoming season will be 61 LMT.
In the current season, the government had not permitted a second tranche of sugar exports.
In the previous season, India exported record 110 LMT of sugar. The government is closely monitoring prices and implementing measures to prevent any surge in prices due to the decreased sugar output.
In September, the government will unveil its first advance estimates of foodgrains production and output for commercial crops, including sugarcane.
According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon, which is now in its advanced stage, is active in the country, and several states are expected to receive heavy rainfall in the coming few days.
As concerns over El Nino persist, the sugar industry will closely monitor weather patterns and the progress of the monsoon to assess the actual impact on sugar production in the coming season.
