Manila: The Philippines’ raw sugar production in the upcoming market year (MY) 2026 is projected to remain stable at 1.85 million metric tons (MT), according to a recent report by the United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) in Manila. The report attributes this stagnation to an anticipated lack of growth in planted areas, primarily due to ongoing land conversions.
The USDA-FAS Manila estimates that the raw sugar output for the current MY 2025 (October 2024 to September 2025) will reach 1.85 million MT, which is nearly four percent higher than the Philippine government’s projection of 1.78 million MT.
Looking ahead, the report states, “Post forecasts sugarcane area to remain flat in MY 2026. There are limited areas for expansion that can replace the continuous conversion of agricultural land to residential and industrial uses.”
Despite a downward trend in mill site prices for the current MY 2025, the USDA-FAS Manila anticipates that “farmers will continue to plant sugarcane…in anticipation of increases in MY 2026.”
The international agency forecasts that the total sugarcane area harvested will remain at 389,000 hectares, with an estimated cane output of 21.8 million MT.
On the demand side, the report projects that the country’s raw sugar demand will remain unchanged for the third consecutive market year at 2.2 million MT, as elevated prices are expected to continue discouraging increased consumption.
Domestic sugar demand in the Philippines is segmented into three main categories: household (32 percent), institutional (18 percent), and industrial (50 percent).
The USDA-FAS Manila anticipates that the Philippines may import 300,000 MT of refined sugar in the next MY. This is attributed to previous government programs that offered import privileges to entities willing to purchase raw sugar at higher prices and to those who would export a portion of their stocks to the US market.
The international agency does not foresee any raw sugar exports from the Philippines to the US in MY 2026.
“Post forecasts ending stocks to remain high in MY 2026 but will decline modestly year-on-year. Sugar withdrawals continue to be low compared to previous years,” the USDA-FAS Manila report stated.
It further added, “Raw inventory is expected to be high at the start of the milling season. With the ongoing harvest, there will be a buildup of raw sugar if it is not sold in the market.”
