U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in a report-Sugar Annual- released for India highlights forecast for 2024-25 season.
According to the report, India’s centrifugal sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2024-2025 (October-September) is forecast to reach 34.5 million metric tons (MMT), equivalent to 33 MMT of crystal white sugar. The current year’s sugar production estimate is lowered to 34 MMT, equivalent to 32 MMT of crystal white sugar, due to the late onset of rain in Maharashtra and Karnataka as well as red rot infestation in central Uttar Pradesh. India’s sugar exports in MY 2024-2025 are estimated to be 3.7 MMT as the Indian government is likely to maintain the export cap to meet domestic food consumption and sugar to ethanol diversion for the Ethanol Blending Program. Sugar consumption in the forecast year is expected to reach 32 MMT to meet sugar requirement during festivals, rise in pre-packed food market, sugar and confectioneries, and organized and unorganized catering services.
The report further says that it forecasts India’s sugar planted area for the marketing year (MY) 2024-25 at 5.42 million hectares (MHa) and total sugarcane production at 416 MMT. For the current MY 2023-24, it has revised the planted area to 5.45 MHa, almost three percent lower than the previous estimate, and sugarcane production to 415.5 MMT. The drop in acreage is related to the El Nino weather pattern that included comparatively less rainfall in the onset of the season than in previous years. The late onset stunts the vegetative growth of the canes in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka—three states that account for 80 percent of sugar production in India. According to industry sources, the limited rainfall in Maharashtra favored pulling up the state’s production number considerably to 1 MMT. There was also a red-rot infestation in Uttar Pradesh which is detrimental to cane growth and resulted in a marginal production drop. Despite this, according to FAS sources, cane production is higher in Uttar Pradesh due to the highest state prices, State Advised Price (SAP), offered by the state for the current year.
Further, it is anticipated that fewer ratoon crops will be available for MY 2024-25 due to the red-rot infestations in central Uttar Pradesh and water shortages in Karnataka that compelled farmers to uproot the canes for the current MY. However, ratoon crops in Maharashtra and the planting of early-maturing varieties in January 2024 during the limited rainfall should contribute to slightly increasing the sugar output for MY 2024-25.
