On Saturday, AgriMandi.Live Research announced the estimates for the next sugar season of 2024-25 in an editorial “Season wrap-up and outlook: 2023-24 expected to end with 32 mmt sugar production after ethanol diversion of 2 mmt; 2024-25 sugar production forecast to drop by 5.90%” written by Uppal Shah, Founder & CEO, ChiniMandi.
According to the initial estimate, the sugar production in 2024-25 SS is estimated to be lower (than the current season) on the back of drastic reduction in acreage in Maharashtra, Karnataka and other minor growing cane states.
The total net sugar production is seen at 28.50 MMT, which is almost 10.90% down compared to the ongoing season.
|
Narration |
2023-2024 |
2024-2025 |
% |
|
Opening Stock |
5.18 |
7.68 |
48.30 |
|
Production |
32.00 |
28.50 |
-10.90 |
|
Imports |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
Total Supply |
37.18 |
36.18 |
-2.70 |
|
Domestic Consumption |
29.00 |
29.60 |
2.10 |
|
Export |
0.50 |
0.50 |
0.00 |
|
Total Consumption |
29.50 |
30.10 |
2.00 |
|
End Stocks |
7.68 |
6.08 |
-20.80 |
|
Sugar to Ethanol |
2.00 |
3.0 to 3.5 |
Robin Shaw, Sugar Analyst, Marex Spectron, concurred with AgriMandi’s estimation. He said, “Essentially we are on the same page as you. The new sugar season for India i.e. 2024-25 will be a year of reduced sugar production, of resuming diversion to ethanol, of rising domestic sugar consumption”.
Shaw said that therefore there will be no significant exports in the coming two years to the world market.
However, on sugar diversion towards ethanol production in 2024-25, Shaw feels that the amount of diversion to ethanol will have to be a bit higher. AgriMandi has estimated sugar diversion of around 3 to 3.5 MMT towards ethanol production in the new season.
