Private weather bureau, Skymet in its latest report has said that ENSO-neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina) is likely anytime soon. But, La Nina will build up only halfway through the monsoon. Also, there is always a lag between its build-up and its influence on the monsoon activity.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral. The latest value of IOD for the week ending 09th June 2024 was -0.02°C. It mandatorily has to cross the threshold of +0.4°C to complement monsoon rainfall.
The report said that another important factor for good monsoon rains, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is likely to meander over Western Pacific and Western Hemisphere and the amplitude continues to be small and restricted to the unit circle.
Such a stance of MJO will continue to promote drier conditions across the Indian Ocean basin. The Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are unlikely to get support from MJO for the emergence of any monsoon system.
