Jatin Singh, the Founder and CEO of Skymetweather.com, holds an optimistic view of the upcoming 2024 monsoon season in India. Skymet, a prominent weather forecasting agency, is projecting a normal monsoon, anticipating minimal impact from El Nino this year, reported CNBCTV18.
El Nino, identified by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, has the potential to disrupt global weather patterns. In India, it often results in weakened monsoons, adversely affecting agriculture due to reduced essential rainfall for crops.
Singh expressed confidence in a positive outlook, stating, “There is a better chance of a normal and above-normal and excess than below normal for sure. There is a very low chance of a below-normal or drought this year.”
According to Singh, current indicators point towards a favorable scenario for the upcoming monsoon. “The Pacific is moving from an El Nino towards neutral and then towards La Nina. Plus, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also supportive and positive,” he highlighted.
This shift towards a neutral-to-positive phase is expected to bring about a normal monsoon season, providing relief to those dependent on rainfall for agriculture and water supply.
Singh elaborated on Skymet’s forecasting approach, a combination of long-range and short-range predictions, computing, and statistics, refined through years of experience. While acknowledging past challenges in accurately predicting month-to-month variations within the monsoon season, Singh expressed confidence in this year’s forecast.
Skymet plans to release its mid-April update for a more detailed analysis. At present, the preliminary forecast brings positive news to various sectors, particularly agriculture, heavily reliant on monsoon patterns.
