As per private weather bureau Skymet’s latest update, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific still indicate the continuation of El Nino. The Pacific warming continues, and Skymet said that any sudden collapse is unlikely.
The Southern Oscillation Index is yet to dilute completely and the monthly average value is marginally negative (-0.2). The index had earlier turned positive in March 2024. It may be construed that the oceanic conditions and atmospheric indicators of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are not yet ‘done and dusted’.
Skymet said that the remnant effect might linger longer and ENSO could turn neutral by the end of May or the start of June, coinciding with the scheduled onset of the monsoon.
A positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event may develop earlier than usual but La Nina is unlikely to be in place, to have a joint push at the start of the monsoon. Skymet said that it is feared that La Nina and IOD may not be in sync, when it is needed the most.
Skymet said La Nina is not the singular reason for a good monsoon. A bumper monsoon gets assured when La Nina sails on the back of a strong and positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The two together, essentially need to remain in phase and work in tandem, for unfailing returns.
The Indian Ocean Dipole index for the week ending 05 May 2024 was +0.24°C. The index has slipped below the average after remaining positive for seven consecutive weeks. It is rather difficult to reason out this collapse from +0.68°C on 28 Apr 2024 to +0.24°C on 05 May 2024. A uniform pattern can be expected, on stabilisation of the cross equatorial flow over the Indian Ocean.
The scheduled monsoon onset is drawing nearer. In the process of changeover, ENSO and IOD signals remain indeterminate, making it difficult to read the 2024 monsoon with clarity and precision.
