The much-awaited Southwest Monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala on May 31, the India Meteorological Department said.
“This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days,” said the India Meteorological Department in a release issued on Wednesday.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that this is not early. It’s a near-normal date, as the normal date for the onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1.
The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterising the transition from a hot and dry season to a rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas, it added.
These rains are crucial to the Indian agriculture economy ( especially for kharif crops). India has three cropping seasons — summer, kharif and rabi.
Traditionally, the Kharif area/output is heavily reliant on the normal progression of monsoon rainfall.
“An above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall for 2024 no doubt has brightened the prospect of agriculture and rural demand; however, much would depend on the spatial/geographical spread of rainfall during the south-west monsoon season (June-September) which has been uneven over the past few years,” said Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).
The IMD further said that the southwest monsoon is very likely to advance into South Andaman Sea, some parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal and Nicobar Islands around May 19.
The weather department has predicted above-normal rainfall during the June–September Southwest Monsoon season.
