Skymet’s latest report indicates that the onset of the 2024 Southwest Monsoon over the mainland is getting closer. The report highlights that three key parameters—ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—significantly influence seasonal rainfall throughout the monsoon period.
While ENSO and IOD are relatively static patterns, the transitory MJO pulse can trigger monsoon systems over the Indian seas, enhancing convection and prolonging the monsoon’s wet phase.
The strength of the IOD forecast has been adjusted downwards from April to May 2024. Most weather models predict a low to moderately positive IOD during the core monsoon months of July and August, turning nearly neutral by September.
Skymet also noted that El Niño is transitioning towards an ENSO-neutral phase. According to the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), this transition is expected to occur within the next month, with La Niña potentially developing between June and August 2024 (49% chance) or July and September (69% chance).
