StoneX projects that the surplus of sugar on the global market is poised to exceed initial forecasts for the 2023-24 season. This optimistic outlook stems from the rebound in sugar production in India and Thailand towards the latter stages of their harvest seasons, prompting a positive adjustment in estimates.
The latest projections from StoneX suggest that global sugar output will surpass demand by 3.88 million metric tonnes, representing an increase from the 3.4 million tonnes anticipated earlier in February.
In light of these developments, StoneX has raised its forecast for India’s sugar output by 1.7 million tonnes to reach 32.8 million tons. Similarly, Thailand’s estimate has been revised upward by 500,000 tons, reaching 9.1 million tons. Both nations are experiencing enhanced harvest yields as their seasons draw to a close.
The heightened sugar production in Asia is counterbalancing declines witnessed in Mexico and Brazil, indicating a notable shift in the global sugar landscape.
However, in Brazil’s centre-south region, StoneX has adjusted its forecast for sugarcane crush downward from 622 million tons to 602 million tons, effective from April. This revision reflects an anticipated 9% reduction in yield, attributed to unusually dry weather conditions.
