Nigeria is expected to see a 12 percent increase in raw sugar imports in marketing year (MY) 2025-26 compared to the prior year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Lagos (Post).
This is in spite of the country’s aspiration to become self-sufficient in sugar production which is now facing a significant setback. Several initiatives and substantial investments have gone into boosting local output.
According to the report, the increase is due to increased foreign exchange availability, appreciation of the naira, and the projected increase in consumption. Sugarcane area harvested is expected to increase by about five percent in MY 2025/26 to 100,000 hectares compared to the prior year’s estimate. This is due to continued public-private investments in sugarcane production. Despite the prohibition on refined sugar imports, imports increased in the last marketing year.
Nigeria is the second largest raw sugar importer in Sub-Saharan Africa, behind South Africa. Sugar consumption decreased in 2023 and 2024 due to the weakened purchasing power of consumers, high food inflation, removal of the fuel subsidy, and a weakened naira. The high cost of sugar led to decreased production in bakeries and increased bakery good prices, leading many consumers to forgo traditional sweetened breads. Economists are anticipating an improved economic situation in 2025 due to increased oil production, the naira’s stabilization, reduced pressure on foreign exchange, and a decrease in the cost of fuel. These factors are expected to improve consumer purchasing power and reduce the cost of production for sugarcane producers.
Sugarcane production is anticipated to rise in MY 2025/26 due to ongoing public-private sector initiatives. The Niger state government announced the goal of increasing sugar production by 2.5 MMT and creating 250 million liters of ethanol from sugarcane in the next three years, although production
has not yet begun. Post had forecasted MY 2025/26 sugarcane production at 3.5 million metric tonnes.
FAS-Lagos forecasts raw sugar imports in MY 2025/26 at 1.9 MMT, about 11 percent increase compared to the forecast for MY 2024/25 at 1.7 MMT. This is attributed to the expected increase in consumption of raw and refined sugar.
Nigeria imports raw sugar, but the government does not allow refined sugar imports to protect the sugar industry and boost local production.
Due to the government restrictions on refined sugar imports, local sugar packaging and cubing companies source their refined sugar domestically unless there is a justifiable reason to import. In that case, the government requires companies to submit their 3 to 5-year projected sugar needs and other requirements.
