According to the news report by CNBCTV18, Sucden analyst Olivier Crassard informed that
the projected sugar production for India in the 2024-25 season is anticipated to decline to 28 million tonnes.
Notably, there is no indication of any diversion to ethanol in this outlook. The decrease in reservoir levels has adversely impacted cane plantings, particularly in Southern India.
As per media report, stocks are expected to rebound to 7 million tonnes in the 2023-24 season; they could be down to 6 million tonnes by the end of 2024-25. Crassard notes that India is likely to maintain a detached stance from the global market in both the current and upcoming seasons.
Turning to Brazil’s Center-South region, expectations point to a sugar crop of 40.8 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season, representing a year-over-year decrease of 1.8 million tonnes. The region faced challenges as rains from December to February amounted to only 70% of the average, causing a delay in vegetative growth. This shortfall is significant for a world heavily reliant on Brazil, which provides over 75% of its raw sugar supply.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s sugar crop is anticipated to witness a recovery in the next season, propelled by higher cane prices. The 2023-24 sugar production is forecasted to reach 8.5 million tonnes, reflecting a decrease of 2.5 million tonnes compared to the previous year. These dynamics underscore the complex and interconnected nature of the global sugar market, with each major player grappling with unique challenges and contributing to the overall fluctuations in production.
