Insight Focus
Global consumption in 2023/24 is set to be the highest on record, surpassing global production. This leaves the world with 0.3m tonnes less sugar to meet demand. That being said, China is expecting to produce more sugar in the upcoming 2023/24 season.
Global Sugar Production
We believe that the world will produce 179.2m tonnes of sugar in 2023/24, up 0.4m tonnes from our last update.
This increase in production is because we think CS Brazil will have its second largest crop on record, producing around 37.6m tonnes of sugar. Furthermore, Ukraine beet acreage for the upcoming 2023/24 season has increased, resulting in increased sugar production.
Global Sugar Consumption
We estimate that the world will consume approximately 179.5m tonnes of sugar in 2023/24, a 2.4m tonne increase over the previous season and the highest level on record.
If consumption continues to rise in tandem with population growth, we should see a 2m tonne increase each season.
Our forecast remains unchanged from our previous update.
Small Production Deficit
Given that global consumption has slightly outpaced production, we now forecast that there will be 0.3m tonne deficit in 2023/24. This is a 0.2m tonne decrease from our last forecast.
This deficit can be attributed to the fact that India and Thailand are expected to have a worse-than-expected crop for the upcoming 2023/24 season. As such, we believe the raw and refined sugar markets will be slightly undersupplied over the next 12 months.
China Sugar Production Update
After 3 consecutive years of drought, China is set to produce 9.6m tonnes of sugar in 2023/24. This is a 0.6m tonnes increase from last season. We expect this sugar to come from the Guangxi province, which accounts for 60% of total sugar production.
The beet region currently accounts for 10% of the total sugar production in China. According to some early reports, corn is still slightly more competitive, and as a result, the beet area could fall by 20% in 2023/24.
However, according to a recent field trip report, the beet area could remain the same, in which case sugar production should be higher this season.
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