For October 4, 2021
SB (Sugar nearby active contract): Last week`s close was bullish. The longer NBC-Point is 18.34, which means the long-term trend remains bullish. This is in an uptrend since April 30, 2021. A weekly close below longer NBC-Point will change the trend to neutral from bullish.
The shorter NBC-Point is 19.48, which means the short-term trend remains neutral. A
weekly close above this will change the trend to bullish.
The bull-bear fight zone for the coming week is at 19.54. This is an important level for deciding who is in control for the week.
Weekly Support is 18.72-19.13. A weekly close below this range is bearish.
Weekly Resistance is 20.58-20.99. A weekly close above this range is bullish.
Cycle: This starts the 1st week of a new 20 Weeks +/- 5 weeks primary cycle off the 18.49 low of September 28, 2021. The last week`s report mentioned, “As expected, the sugar found support into the multiple support zone and bounced back. Usually, a market rallies for 3-13 days from such lows. Sugar also rallied sharply from that low and witnessed selling pressure. The technical indicators are suggesting another sell-off. A move below 19.02 will be the confirmation that prices will go further lower. Keep in mind the multiple support zones from 18.45-18.25. Below that sharp drop is expected towards 17.09-17.77. Sugar rallied for 5 days on expected lines and
again started the sell-off. A primary cycle low is due in the next 1-6 weeks. The price target for the cycle low is 18.25 +/- 0.25”. It hit the exact price target for the cycle low for the expiring contract and rallied. This is a new cycle and the first phase of any cycle is always very bullish, which means prices may rally for 2-5 weeks or more for the first phase sub-cycle crest. Sugar crossed the earlier high of 20.31 from the previous cycle. It closed at the important weekly trend change point, which is 20.11. The technical indicators are in the neutral zone, which means the price may turn in any direction in the coming week. The bigger cycle turning point is 19.29. Sugar
has the potential to rally up to October 10-11.
Strategy: The last report mentioned, “Wait for long re-entry as mentioned in the report above.Follow the daily reports”. We hit the exact price target for the long entry.
Click below to read the previous episodes
Sugar Time Cycles – Weekly : Sept, 6 2021
Legal Disclaimer: Trading in futures/options of any asset class carries a high level of risk, where traders can lose much more than the capital infused. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future performance. The support and resistance may represent favourable risk/reward places to buy/sell depending on the broader trend. These comments and trade recommendations are primarily for the traders/investors of futures contracts. They are provided mainly with “speculators” in mind. By its very nature, speculation means “willing to take risk of loss”. “Speculators” must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say, “investors.” That is why they are “speculators.”
Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way speculators become profitable is not so much by a high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling the amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. These comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day’s trading. There is no guarantee as to
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