In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on March 11, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) kept its forecast for corn use in ethanol production unchanged for the 2024-25 season. The agency also maintained its projection for the season-average corn price, reports Ethanol Producer Magazine.
The USDA’s 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook remains consistent with its February report. The forecast for planted area stays at 90.6 million acres, while the area expected to be harvested is unchanged at 82.9 million acres. The average yield per harvested acre is projected at 179.3 bushels.
The USDA continues to predict that 5.5 billion bushels of corn will be used for ethanol production in 2024-25, a slight increase from the estimated 5.478 billion bushels used in 2023-24. For the 2022-23 season, corn use for ethanol production stood at 5.176 billion bushels.
The season-average corn price received by producers remains steady at $4.35 per bushel.
Globally, corn production forecasts have been adjusted, with higher expectations for India, Russia, and Ukraine. These increases are partially offset by lower projections for South Africa and Mexico. In India, both planted area and yield estimates have been raised due to favorable monsoon rainfall and government data indicating expanded planting. Russia’s forecast has been revised upward based on the latest statistics, while Ukraine’s projection reflects updated harvest information. South Africa’s outlook has been reduced primarily due to a decrease in planted area, and Mexico’s forecast has been adjusted as lower winter corn yields are partly balanced by higher summer corn area.
Significant changes in global corn trade for 2024-25 include reduced exports from Brazil and South Africa. For the 2023-24 marketing year ending in February 2025, Brazil’s exports have been lowered based on current shipment data. However, this decline is more than offset by an increase in exports from Argentina.
On the import side, the USDA has lowered its forecasts for China and Taiwan but raised projections for Turkey, Vietnam, Colombia, and Egypt. Foreign corn ending stocks are expected to decrease, primarily due to reductions in China and Argentina, which are partially offset by increases in Russia and India. Global corn ending stocks are projected at 288.9 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from previous estimates.
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