Washington: The USDA increased its outlook for U.S. sugar production and imports in the 2023-24 marketing year, which together will lead to sharply higher ending stocks, according to the July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Larger beginning stocks and an expected gain in beet sugar output for 2024-25 more than offset lower imports from Mexico than previously forecast to achieve a 13.5% ending stocks-to-use ratio for the upcoming year.
It puts beet sugar production at 5,179,000 tons for the current marketing year, up 133,781 tons from June and a 2.7 per cent increase. Cane sugar production also increased slightly, by 5,791 tons in Florida, to 4,041,000 tons. Total U.S. sugar production is now 9,220,000 tons, up 1.5 per cent from the June projection but down 30,000 from the 2022-23 estimate.
USDA said that with the slicing season now complete in all but California, it based its beet sugar production on processor estimates of output from slicing at 4.882 million short tons, raw value. Beet sugar production in the current fiscal year is now projected at 5.179 million tons, including a small reduction from desugared molasses.
The 2023-24 imports are forecast at 3,619,000 tons, up 165,259 tons from June, reflecting an expectation of larger imports from Mexico and record-large high-duty imports. Imports from Mexico are projected at 504,000 tons, up 8 per cent from last month. Total high-duty imports are projected at a record 1,028,899 tons, up about 127,000 tons from last month, and up 574,000 tons from 2022-23. That includes 700,000 tons of raw sugar imports, 270,000 tons of refined sugar, and 58,899 from molasses.
The total Outlook sugar supply for 2023-24 is forecasted at 14,682,000 tons, up 304,831 tons from a month ago, nearly matching the 14,685,000 tons from 2022-23.
The current year’s exports are projected to be 241,000 tons, which is 42,913 tons above June and nearly 200 per cent above last year’s 82,000 tons as strong exports to Mexico boost shipments. Deliveries for food use were left unchanged from last month at 12,350,000 tons.
Ending stocks on September 30, 2024, are projected at 1,986,000 tons, an increase of 262,000 tons or 15% compared with June. This would leave the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 15.6%, up from 13.6% last month and the highest since 2018.
Based on import reductions from Mexico offset by increased beginning stocks, sugar beet production, and TRQ and high-tier imports, USDA projects the ending stocks-to-use ratio in 2024–25 at 13.5 per cent. U.S. sugar production for 2024–25 is projected at 9,325,000 tons, which is 124,816 tons higher than June due to sugarcane at 4,089,000 and beet sugar at 5,236,000. If achieved, this would be the most total sugar produced on record.
Total imports in 2024-25 are projected at 2,939,000 tons, which is down 137,000 tons from June. TRQ imports are pegged at 1,647,000 tons, up 231,485 tons. High-duty imports are projected at 301,899 tons, up 38,753 tons from June but off 71 per cent from 2023-24. Imports from Mexico are reduced to 790,000 tons from the June estimate of 1,197,000 tons.
The total sugar supply estimate for 2024-25 is projected at 14,250,000 tons, an increase of 249,972 over last month but down 432,000 from 2023-24. Ending stocks for next year are projected at 1,695,000 tons—an increase of 250,000 from last month but down 291,000 tons from 2023-24.
The USDA pegged the 2023-24 sugar production estimate for Mexico at 4,708,000 tons, down 10,000 from June, while its import estimate was 747,000 tons, up 151,000 tons from June. Domestic use was estimated at 4,630,000 tons, up 12,000 tons, while exports were raised to 432,000 tons.
Ending stocks are forecasted at 1,228,000 tons, up 96,000 tons (8%) from June.
For 2024-25, Mexico’s sugar production is projected at 5,094,000 tons, down 95,000 tons (1.8%) from June but up 386,000 tons (8%) from 2023-24. Imports are lowered to 25,000 tons from 343,000 tons in June. Domestic use remains unchanged at 4,661,000 tons. Exports are projected at 708,000 tons, down 316,000 tons from June, largely reflecting the lower US export limit. Ending stocks in 2024-25 remain unchanged at 978,000 tons.
